They develop an interactive model of five years of evolution of Pandemia

2020/09/24 Galarraga Aiestaran, Ana - Elhuyar Zientzia Iturria: Elhuyar aldizkaria

• Osasuna
• Mikrobiologia
• COVID-19
• Matematika

Researchers at the University of Princeton have prepared a mathematical model to predict the evolution of the pandemic in the next five years, taking into account various variables, from the duration of the immune response to the efficacy of vaccines. The work, published by researchers in the journal Science, has been made available to everyone on the web https://grenfelllab.shinyapps.io/sarscov2/

Different scenarios appear on the web according to the following variables: possibility of adaptation to the SARS-CoV-2 infection, possible seasonal effect on the rate of transmission, implementation of non-pharmacological measures, availability and efficacy of the vaccine, rejection of vaccines, climate, etc. The scenarios range from the sustainable pandemic to the close elimination.

In any case, it is essential to understand how the immune system responds. In addition to natural immunity, the massive diffusion of vaccines can significantly alter the course of the pandemic, although it depends on the effectiveness of the vaccine.

View scenarios in https://grenfelllab.shinyapps.io/sarscov2/