Text written in Basque and translated automatically by Elia without any subsequent editing. SEE ORIGINAL

The area burned by European fires could triple in the future

Reducing emissions and strengthening management is absolutely essential to prevent future fires from becoming more frequent and intense.

As a result of climate change, increasingly dry, warm and windy environmental conditions are expected in the future, which can lead to a significant increase in the area burned by fires in Europe.

This year’s fire season has hit Europe hard. According to the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), as of 12 August 2026, 550,000 hectares have been burned in the European Union. This figure is 2.5 times higher than the average of the time.

“The results show that reducing greenhouse gas emissions of human origin is of paramount importance in fire prevention.”

In a study, future estimates of the area burned by fires have been made, taking into account different levels of greenhouse gas emissions of human origin. In a low-emission scenario and with a temperature increase of 1.8°C, the area burned in Europe would increase by 39% per year by the end of the century. If the temperature increases by 3.6°C due to high emissions, the area burned in fires would increase by 192%. In both situations, fires would become more frequent and dangerous in the Mediterranean area, as well as in western and central Europe. Even areas that have had few fires so far would not be safe from the danger.

The results show that reducing the emission of greenhouse gases of human origin is of vital importance in fire prevention. But in addition, the study incorporates a second approach that analyzes the impact of human actions on fire prevention and extinguishing capacity. It is estimated that improving fire management would reduce the burned surface by 92% with a temperature increase of 1.8°C and 72% with a temperature increase of 3.6°C.

According to the authors, the recent fires in France show that it is not possible to extrapolate from past experiences, and they wanted to make it clear that reducing emissions and strengthening management is absolutely essential to prevent future fires from becoming more frequent and powerful.