Announce El Niño two years earlier!

2004/05/01 Elhuyar Zientzia Iturria: Elhuyar aldizkaria

• Klima

The famous Niño is the result of a rapid warming of the Pacific water surface, which occurs cyclically. However, this cycle is not regular, it can occur every three years or wait seven years to reappear. You cannot say when it will happen.

But it is very important to develop a system of predictions, since El Niño brings serious consequences, especially on the western coast of South America: droughts, floods, strong heat, etc. El Niño could predict nine months before the best systems were produced so far.

Now, NOAA researchers have developed a new theoretical model with data from the last 150 years. The surface temperatures of the sea measured throughout this period have introduced the model and have managed to find out when were the most violent Children. The model announced that at least in the next two years the Child will not occur. To see if now, leaving aside the past, you can predict futures through this tool.