Climate summit

1999/12/01 Albisu, Jon Iturria: Elhuyar aldizkaria

• Klima

In climatic summits, not all the research presented are adequately addressed and discussed, but those that conform to geopolitical and economic interests in the strategy of the most powerful powers. These are the lines of work that normally go ahead.

Currently, of the energy currently consumed in the world, about 76% comes from the use of fossil fuels: 33% of oil, 23% of coal and 20% of natural gas. CO2 emissions into the atmosphere inevitably increase over the next century, as to avoid this we must collect the CO2 produced or reduce the burning of fossil fuels.

The detection and storage of CO2 produced is very difficult, since the emissions are spectacular, contrary to what happens with other pollutants such as SO2. That mass that would be generated would also be a huge volume and we would have to condition department stores in all places of CO2 generation. In addition to thermal power plants, warehouses should be installed in cars, which seems an absurd idea. Some ways
to eliminate this CO2 generated in thermal power plants have been studied. One of these forms would be to inject the surplus of CO2 into the former deposits of depleted metallic gases, such as those of Holland and the North Sea. Another route is the injection into the sea, at a minimum depth of 1,500 meters, in the hope that there they will dissolve and surface for hundreds of years. This project is not yet viable, as it would be very expensive to transport CO2 and inject it into deep water.

In the coming decades it is practically impossible to moderate energy consumption in general and therefore CO2 emissions. It is true that in developed countries CO2 emissions from industry are declining, but this is because the economic development of these countries allows an increasingly lower use of energy per unit of value produced, something that does not occur in most developing countries, which have not yet exceeded the first industrial phase of large energy costs.

In most countries, energy consumption is increasing in the transport sector: cars, ships and planes. The approval of a policy of increasing the rates of these fuels, with the aim of deterring the population from the use of fuels, will be very difficult in the coming decades. Therefore, as long as new vehicle propulsion methods are not invented and they go to market – perhaps the hydrogen fuel cell method – CO2 emissions will be increasing in transport, and denying this would be lying.

Until recently, natural gas resources were considered scarce, but in recent years huge deposits of frozen methane have been discovered in the subsoil of large continental and coastal territories. In any case, coal remains a geographically better distributed resource and, for the moment, its use will probably not decrease in countries like China or developing India. As for oil, more and more reserves are found due to improved exploration techniques. Thus, in the long term, the price of oil will decrease, unless other factors of a geopolitical nature are not foreseeable.

If only the 5% reduction agreed at the summits of Kyoto and Bonn were allocated in the coming years, according to climate models, if no measure had been adopted, only a tenth of a grade would have been avoided.

Due to the consequences of the increase in CO2 emissions, the existing pessimism is not objectively fully justified if we analyze different studies. On the one hand is the way the transfer flows between the sea, vegetation and atmosphere react. Increased atmospheric concentration and increased emissions may not coincide and be much lower than expected. On the other hand, the Earth has already known times when the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere was greater than now, and have not been detrimental to the development of life. If climates are heated (or cooled) as a result of the increase in greenhouse gases, man will continue to exist. Some will come well and others worse.

The issue is very complex, that is evident, but in the face of the need for real courage to solve the problems, we have to demand the firmness of the political and economic powers. In addition, to do this we should study the economic interests that govern the geopolitical strategy, so that we do not deceive ourselves, there is and the real key.