It has been suggested that the intensity of heat waves has increased by 50% due to large carbon emitters

2025/09/10 Galarraga Aiestaran, Ana - Elhuyar Zientzia Iturria: Elhuyar aldizkaria

• Industria
• Klima
• Energia
• Giza zientziak

A quarter of the heat waves from 2000 to 2023 would be almost impossible without anthropogenic climate change, a study published in the journal Nature suggests. In addition, they conclude that it is the large carbon emitters that have caused the intensity of these events to increase by 50%.

The researchers confirm that the warming generated by human activity has implications for the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. The study took a step further and sought to clarify the impact of anthropogenic climate change on heat waves and the contribution of large carbon emitters.

To this end, using data from an international database of 213 heat waves from 2000 to 2023, they have created a model to assess the impact of human activity on each of these heat waves. Thus, they have observed that without climate change, a quarter of these heat waves would have been almost impossible.In fact, anthropogenic climate change has increased the risk of heat waves and their intensity. Specifically, it is estimated, and compared to 1850-1900, that heat waves were 20 times more likely between 2000 and 2009; and 200 times more likely between 2010 and 2019. Also, in terms of intensity, between 2000-2009 the temperature increased by 1.4 °C during the heat waves, between 2010-2019 it increased by 1.7 °C, and between 2020-2023 it increased by 2.2 °C.

On the other hand, the analysis of the data of the 180 largest carbon emitters (producers of fossil fuels and cement) concludes that 50% of the intensity of the heat waves is due to their emissions. In addition, it is estimated that they contributed to the generation of the heat wave 16-53. They add that before industrialization it would be impossible for human activity to have any effect on it. It should be noted that 33 of these large emitters are from the United States and generate 10% of the carbon that is emitted. Another 33 are in China, producing 12% of the carbon emitted.

The researchers say their study is useful in filling a gap in the effects of climate change. In addition, they believe that the methodology they have developed can be adapted to other risks and that the conclusions reached can contribute to climate policies.