Ascending and descending employment

1986/08/01 Sarriegi Eskisabel, Andoni Iturria: Elhuyar aldizkaria

• Giza zientziak

Paris-New York 2000 years

The French magazine "Futuribles", of February 1986, is analyzing the employment needs for the year 2000. Here are only examples of two places, but to see trends you have to consider.

Given the need to carry out a study on the evolution of school needs, the Institut d'aménagement et d'urbanisme de la Région Ile de-France (IAURIF), indicates that the population of this region, currently 10.1 million inhabitants, must be within ten years between 10.6 and 9.9 million inhabitants. In the first case (10.6 million) a slight growth of the region is expected at a very slow pace, while in the second case (9.9 million) a slight decrease in population is expected. Both perspectives are also considered truthful and predictable, or rather, as the limit of what will actually occur. What will really happen, therefore, is within those two limits.

The demographic rate tends, therefore, to the fall of fertility, to the return of those coming from the provinces and to the reduction of the arrival of foreign immigrants. In short, taking into account the evolution of the population as a whole, it foresees that school needs decrease.

On the other end of the Atlantic, the Régional Plan Association has published forecasting projects for the New York region, covering New York City and parts of the States of Connecticut, New Jersey and New York. By the end of the century (this study says) the population will increase by 10% and exceed 22 million euros, employment will increase by 30%, reaching a population of 11 million. The value of the goods and services that will produce is estimated at 546 million dollars (value of 1982), with a growth of more than 60%, placing the amount of rents in 6% and the income per inhabitant in 14%, reaching 17,000 $.

If these forecasts come true, the Régional Plan Association says there will be enough work to find a way out of labor that will grow and secure the means of transport for factories.

Returning back to France within 2,000 years, the BIPE (Bureau d'Information et de Prévisions Economiques), in its report of the General Directorate of Projects "Faire gagner la France", foresees the following evolution of job applications:

According to this information and until next year 2000, the type of employment that will be created will be the response to the needs of employment of tertiary cadres, employees prepared in the brothel, qualified officers, servants or helpers of house and staff for restoration work. On the contrary, farmers, unskilled workers, typists and troop police and soldiers will tend to diminish. These results may not be unforeseen. Research by PEGIZC says at least: The conclusion is clear: social services rise to a tremendous level, generating employment, and there will be a lot of unemployed in the streets willing to everything.