Bilbao tests a statistical model of short-term rainfall forecast

2010/06/01 Elhuyar Zientzia Iturria: Elhuyar aldizkaria

• Fisika
• Klima

The physicist Alejandro Fernández (Barakaldo, 1968) has tested in the sanitation network of the Bilbao Bizkaia Water Consortium a novel statistical model of rainfall forecast between 3 and 24 hours and in a restricted area (10 x 15 km).

This type of networks have storm tanks to perform storage tasks in case of rain and avoid floods. But the arrival of the rain must be foreseen in advance, since the commissioning of the system takes an average of six hours. In this regard, Fernández has presented his doctoral thesis at the UPV.

The model is based on the technique called downscaling or scale reduction. The researcher has combined several methods that collect data that serve to make predictions around the world or in Europe: reanalysis of historical atmospheric data, dynamic methods of data collection in real time and simulation, statistics, etc. Then it has reduced its scale and has adjusted to that of Bilbao. Some models that use terrestrial radars and satellites are as sophisticated as reliable, as the physical has proven through tests.

The researcher also calculates the frequency with which rainfall occurs as those that hit Bilbao in 1983. So far, this type of intense rains could occur at most every 500 years, but Fernández has come to the conclusion that the average is 250 years.