Mathematical prediction of 100 meters test

2009/01/04 Álvarez Busca, Lucía - Elhuyar Zientziaren Komunikazioa

• Matematika

For this purpose, mathematicians have used statistics of the last hundred years. Based on them, they have developed a pattern that takes into account physiological factors and biomechanical limitations, projecting the evolution of the marks of each discipline. In the case of a hundred meters, for example, this projection has been completed until you reach Bolt and break all the schemes with the walk you did in Beijing.

There are those who announced this brand. A few years ago, physicist Jonas Mureika of Loyola Marymount University developed a mathematical model of prediction. According to this, the 9.70 seconds mark would be broken in 2009. But Mureika could not believe the results and rejected the model. He says that since he saw Bolt's mark he repents day by day and accepts it as penance he must endure for not believing in numbers.

Limit of sports brands

According to some experts, in the future athletes will reach the limit of records, that is, it will not be possible to beat. For example, they say that the limit of the jump mark of length is close. In fact, from 1968 to the present it has been broken only on two occasions. One of them is the mathematical Reza Noubary of the University of Bloomsburg. Noubarik has written a textbook that relates statistics and sports and, according to the data used for research, the ability of man to make more and more time in sport is decreasing and it is possible that at a given time he will stay completely.

As for the test of one hundred meters, for example, most mathematical models coincide in marking the border of the human being. They consider that the limit is between 9.2 and 9.4 seconds, but never below 9 seconds.

The last mathematical model of sports brands is based on the theory of extremes. This theory is often applied both for the forecast of stock incidents and for the realization of life insurance projections or price increases. According to this model, the limit of 100 meters is 9.29 seconds.

Limit year 2060

The French Institute of Biomedicine and Epidemiology (Irmes) has analyzed all the records obtained from 1986, the year in which the first Olympic games of the modern era were held, a total of 3,260, and according to the mathematical model developed, the limit is the year 2060, year from which no record will occur. The athletic disciplines will first reach the border and then halterophilia. In the last place has put swimming and paddle, because the technology affects them more.

In fact, technology has played an important role in the improvement of sports brands: the tracks of synthetic material, the low-weight slippers, the fiberglass and carbon fibers, the trainings analyzed by computer, etc., have contributed significantly to breaking the marks.

However, for some experts, these mathematical forecasts have an error in the basic idea, since they are based on the belief that the model of what happened so far will remain intact.

The forecasts, the sports brands have limits in the future, since the experts do not agree. Should you ever change the motto of the Olympic Games altius , citius , fortius, higher, faster, stronger?

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